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Washington Update

Seats at Stake in 2010  

By David Ashinoff 


To most people, awarding a construction contract to the lowest, most reliable bidder makes business sense. However, today the principles of free enterprise and open competition are under siege in Washington, D.C. In 2009, President Obama signed an executive order encouraging union-only project labor agreements on federal projects, and Congress passed legislation negatively impacting open shop contractors’ ability to run their businesses.

The outcome of November’s elections hopefully can turn the tide for open shop contractors and the small business community. Most indications now show pro-business candidates making a strong political comeback this year.

The 2009 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia provided an infusion of optimism into the Republican Party. After suffering electoral defeats in 2006, 2008 and several special elections, the GOP successfully picked up two governorships in states that elected President Barack Obama.

Governors-elect Chris Christie (N.J.) and Bob McDonnell (Va.) defeated their Democrat challengers. Throughout their campaigns, Christie and McDonnell focused on policies that would spur economic growth and job creation rather than on traditional social issues. Candidates seeking office this year would be well served to follow this strategy, as there is no doubt the economy will top most voters’ minds when assessing their choices at the polls.

With 46 states projecting deficits totaling $133 billion this year, many states are choosing to cut services and/or raise taxes. This, coupled with rising unemployment rates, must trouble any governor seeking re-election.

In November, 37 states will hold gubernatorial elections. Currently, 19 are controlled by Democrats and 18 by Republicans. The non-partisan Cook Political Report sees 11 states trending toward Democrats, 12 toward Republicans and rates 14 as toss ups. The toss up states include Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Rhode Island, Vermont and Wisconsin.

The implications of these races could be felt for years to come. The governors elected will be heavily involved in the redistricting process as their states re-draw congressional and state legislative lines following this year’s census. If these elections follow historical trends, Republicans have a reason to be hopeful. Since 1954, the president’s party has averaged a net loss of 5.5 gubernatorial seats in the first midterm election.

In addition to the gubernatorial races, the entire U.S. House of Representatives and 37 U.S. Senate seats are up for election. Currently, Democrats hold a 41-seat majority in the House and a 10-seat majority in the Senate.

Since 1954, the average net loss for the president’s party is 16 House seats and 0.4 Senate seats. Many analysts are comparing this election to 1994, when the record for the most seats lost in modern history was set: 52 seats in the House and nine in the Senate. It remains to be seen if 2010 will be a repeat of 1994.  

GOP Momentum
While the Democrats hold a financial advantage, enthusiasm among Republican voters is high. This is drastically different than following President Obama’s election and inauguration. A December 2009 Research 2000/Daily Kos poll showed that Democrats were three times more likely than Republicans not to vote in the 2010 elections. Eighty-two percent of Republicans, 65 percent of Independents and only 56 percent of Democrats said they were likely to vote.

Clearly, this could have devastating consequences for Democrats at the ballot box because historical trends predict low voter turnout in 2010. Since 1960, voter turnout has averaged just 41.5 percent in the midterm election of a president’s first term. To put this in perspective, turnout was 56.8 percent in the 2008 presidential election.

The Cook Political Report currently rates 50 House seats as competitive. Of these seats, 24 lean Democrat, eight lean Republican and 18 are rated toss ups. Of all these seats, only 12 are in districts that voted for Democrat presidential nominees in the last two elections.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is certainly not making it easy for the 49 House Democrats in districts carried by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008. These districts tend to oppose the Waxman-Markey Climate and Energy bill (Cap & Trade) and the Affordable Health Care for America Act (Democrat health care bill). While the House passed both bills by slim margins, 20 of the 49 members voted for Cap & Trade and 18 voted for health care reform. It remains to be seen if and how these decisions will impact their bids for re-election.

Republicans also are poised to pick up seats in the Senate. Currently, Democrats control 60 of the 100 seats providing for a filibuster-proof majority. Thirty-seven seats are up this November; 19 currently are held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans. The Cook Political Report rates 13 seats as competitive, with two leaning Democrat, two leaning Republican and nine rated as toss ups.

The toss ups are in Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Nevada and Pennsylvania. If former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) decides to challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) and if Gov. John Hoeven (R) takes on Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) in North Dakota, two seats in the Democrat column could move into the toss up category.

While it is possible the Republicans might regain control of Congress in 2010, it is not likely given the status of many races. For House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) to be elected speaker, the Republicans would need a net win of 218 seats. Currently, the GOP controls 177, so it would need to pick up at least 41 Democrat seats while holding all of its own. Current estimates place the GOP with a 20- to 30-seat pickup. In the Senate, Republicans would need a net win of 29 seats, which includes holding all of its 18 up for election and picking up 11 now held by Democrats.

Between now and November, much can change. If the economy does not improve and unemployment rates remain high, expect a poor Democrat performance. Also worrisome to many Democrats, especially in districts Sen. McCain won in 2008, is President Obama’s declining approval rating.

If pro-business candidates cannot mount a strong comeback in Congress and in state capitals across the country, open shop contractors, including members of Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), can expect:
  • swift passage of the Employee Free Choice Act/“card check” legislation;
  • continued expansion of union-only project labor agreements;
  • government-run health care;
  • increased personal and business taxes; and
  • elimination of right-to-work laws.
The Free Enterprise Alliance, the issue-advocacy arm of ABC, educates ABC members, their employees, elected officials and the general public about the value of open competition in America. Since its inception in 2001, the Free Enterprise Alliance has funded several successful initiatives, including legislative/ballot referendums in eight states; preserving right-to-work legislation; issue advocacy campaigns featuring print, radio and television ads; educating ABC members nationwide about endorsed candidates; several national get-out-the-vote campaigns; and voter guides in both English and Spanish.

ABC also sponsors a national Political Action Committee (ABC PAC) that works within the federal election process to further the goals of the association through direct involvement in supporting or opposing candidates for the Senate and House. This is accomplished through educating ABC members on the importance of political activism and financial support of open shop candidates.

Once again, the construction industry has an opportunity to impact the nation’s direction. The November elections are around the corner, so now is the time to get into politics or get out of business.  


David Ashinoff is manager of ABC’s Political Action Committee and the Free Enterprise Alliance. For more information, visit www.abc.org/abcpac or www.abc.org/fea.  

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