Americans are deeply divided regarding the extent to which policies intended to stimulate the U.S. economy have worked to create or save jobs, as well as produce self-sustaining economic expansion. Claims of large-scale stimulus impact have been met with varying degrees of skepticism, largely because the nation continues to lose jobs on a monthly basis and the national unemployment rate exceeds 10 percent. However, supporters of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) emphasize that without the stimulus, the pace of job loss would be even sharper and the unemployment rate even higher.
In late October, the White House touted figures from the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board that indicated the $159 billion in contracts, grants and loans made to date under the ARRA created or saved 640,000 jobs. The figures are based on the initial filings submitted by states, cities and other recipients of stimulus grants and loans. White House officials estimate the full $787 billion stimulus package passed in February ultimately will create or save 3.5 million jobs.
The 640,000 job figure does not include the impact of $180 billion of spending to support state government budgets, or spending on vulnerable populations or on tax cuts. Moreover, the board responsible for tracking the federal stimulus is executing a review of reports due to claims that the number of jobs created/saved was flawed or exaggerated.
What is most surprising about these initial estimates is not the magnitude of the claimed impact, but the breakdown by industry of the jobs saved or created by the stimulus package. In early 2009, the package was billed as a public works program, which implied construction would be the major beneficiary. But only $131 billion to $135 billion of the package focuses on infrastructure spending, which means barely more than one in six dollars will be invested in infrastructure.
Accordingly, of the jobs saved or created by the stimulus package to date, a small minority has been in construction. While 325,000 teaching and school administration jobs have been created or saved, only 80,000 construction jobs—one in eight—have been created. According to an
Engineering News-Record analysis of
Recovery.gov data, the official U.S. government website tracking ARRA funding, Massachusetts experienced the largest number of construction jobs created (5,174), followed by New York, Texas, California, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. These positive impacts are easily offset by overall construction job losses, which have exceeded one million jobs lost in 12 months.
Significant Impacts Forthcoming Despite evidence of only modest impact to date, a growing body of information signals significant and positive future impacts as stimulus monies are obligated and translated into construction put-in-place and associated job creation. As of Oct. 5, 2009, Seattle-based Onvia, which tracks ARRA projects at
Recovery.org, contractors had been selected for more than $30 billion of stimulus-related work. Meanwhile, some $60 billion was allocated to specific projects, and agencies were advertising another $25 billion worth of contracts.
According to
Recovery.gov, the largest construction-related contract awarded to date is $1.4 billion to Savannah River Nuclear Solutions, LLC. This South Carolina-based project is sponsored by the Department of Energy and, like most construction-related projects, is less than 50 percent complete.
Other significant contracts have been awarded to the CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company in Washington ($1.4 billion), UT-Battelle, LLC in Tennessee ($339 million) and Los Alamos National Security, LLC in New Mexico ($231 million). The Los Alamos project focuses on research and development, but also includes environmental cleanup and demolition components. Each of these projects is under way, but less than 50 percent complete.