Few Senate races have received more national coverage or yielded more surprising results than the election of Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) to fill the seat of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy. Brown’s victory over Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley is momentous both because of its improbable nature and because of the vast political and public policy implications it will have in 2010 and beyond.
The most talked about number in the U.S. Senate has been and always will be 60—the number of votes needed to invoke “cloture” or to override a filibuster, bringing an end to debate and allowing for an up or down vote on a piece of legislation. Since Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) was seated in July 2009, the Democrats have held a 60-vote majority in the Senate. (The Senate’s two Independent senators, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, both caucus with the Democrats.)
With that filibuster-proof majority came great expectations. The Democrats controlled both congressional chambers by seemingly insurmountable margins, and the way was paved for the Democrat agenda to swiftly move through the halls of Congress to President Barack Obama’s desk for signing. However, fractures within the Democrat caucus proved too much to overcome on many fronts and ultimately led to gridlock. The one Democrat victory that seemed imminent, health care reform, evaporated after the Massachusetts upset.
Scott Brown’s potential to be the 41st Republican senator was a centerpiece of his campaign, and while at times he purposely avoided using the word “Republican,” he was not bashful about touting himself as the man who would help defeat the Obama health care plan.
Hailing from a state that hasn’t sent a Republican to the Senate since 1972, Brown may be tempted to run toward the middle on many political issues. His position on health care reform appears clear, but it seems a safe assumption that Brown will be courted by the left on key issues in the coming months when a Republican vote is needed to pass a major piece of legislation.
With less than nine months until the midterm elections, President Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid only have one major legislative victory to point to during the 111th Congress: the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, commonly referred to as the stimulus bill, which has not yet delivered on all of its promised results. With the Obama health care reform package lacking the support necessary for passage, it is unclear where the president and the Democrat majority will look to next for a legislative win.
The climate change proposal commonly referred to as “Cap and Trade” and the Employee Free Choice Act/“card check” legislation are both at the top of the Democrats’ wish list, but lacked sufficient support in the Senate even before Brown was elected. The president also intends to pursue a job creation package, though it is unclear what form that will take at this time.
What Does This Mean for November?
Looking to November, pundits in Washington are touting multiple theories on the implications of Brown’s victory in Massachusetts. Was this a referendum on the Obama agenda or simply displeasure with the current economy expressed through a rejection of the incumbent party? In exit polling, some voters expressed discontent with both the increased spending in Washington and specifically the health care package, while others cited a general distrust of elected officials in Washington.
In trying to determine the current political tenor of the nation, one also must take into account the two other recent Republican victories in states that voted for President Obama: Gov. Bob McDonnell in Virginia and Gov. Chris Christie in New Jersey. In all three of these races, Independent voters supported the Republican candidate by a 2-to-1 margin or better. If this trend continues to hold true through November, expect the Republicans to make major gains in both the House and the Senate. This string of Republican wins also has compelled a handful of House and Senate Democrats in swing districts to retire rather than test their fate at the polls.
Nine months remain until November’s midterm elections, which in political terms amounts to several lifetimes. A simple look at President Obama’s approval numbers just nine months ago demonstrates how quickly political fates can change. While Republican excitement is at its highest point in years on the heels of Brown’s victory, what transpires on Capitol Hill and with the economy between now and Election Day will play prominently in determining the winners and losers on Nov. 2.
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Wednesday, February 8, 2012